The ODFW has made a significant change this year, they have created new deer units which come with new unit boundaries. All of our well known unit names like Heppner and hunt ids like 139R2 have changed. The goal of the change is discussed by the ODFW, but essentially it is intended to connect the summer and wintering grounds, which was not the case with the previous boundaries. The new boundaries will allow for more accurate herd counts, resulting in better tag allocation numbers. See the ODFW bulletins for more information.
When you apply for a 100 series or 600 series hunt this year you will not find your old goto hunt or your favorite 2nd choice hunt id. In fact, there were very few hunts that were not impacted.
Whether you are for or against the change, I think we all can agree that deer numbers are in decline and that has effected the quality of deer hunting in general. A change is needed and lets all hope that this is the recipe to improve deer hunting.
What should I do?
Here is what I suggest:
-First, don’t panic! What I really mean is don’t do anything rash and waste your points. Don’t apply for a hunt that is less than what you want. Also, with any new hunt there will always be overpriced hunts (they take too many points) and super bargains (under valued hunts). There will be bargains! The trick is to find the bargains.
-If after your analysis what to do is still a mystery, consider buying points and wait until next year. Or, apply for something that you know you can’t draw with points.
I thought I’d share one approach to analyzing a 2026 hunt that should get you a fare idea of what a hunt should cost in terms of preference points:
-Start by verifying how many points you have. Check your party members points as well. Doing any analysis on the wrong point level isn’t going to help.
-Take a look at the 2026 unit boundaries and pick a unit/hunt you are interested in. I’d recommend analysis on one unit at time as it can get messy.
-Compare the 2026 unit with the a map of the 2025 unit boundaries. Both unit maps are in the 2026 and 2025 regulations which can be downloaded from the ODFW website.
-Some of the 2026 unit boundaries haven’t changed, but many have. When the boundaries change, the new boundary is made up of portions of the units from 2025.
-Identify the 2025 hunts that overlap with the 2026 boundaries for the hunt that you are researching.
-I have posted the 2025 actual draw odds for all 100 and 600 series hunts that were cancelled in 2026, look at the menu on the left for “2025 results for cancelled 100/600 series hunts”. I posted it specifically for this purpose, so that you can determine what the 2025 cost was in terms of preference points.
-Looking at what the 2025 hunts took last year can be used as a basis for estimating what the new hunt will taking in 2026.
But it is not quite that easy, there are other factors to consider.
First, there is a 9% reduction in deer tag numbers. This isn’t 9% for each hunt, but rather the overall difference between 2025 and 2026. If we have the same number of applicants this year, but fewer tags, the preference points required to draw will go up. How much depends on how significant the tag count change is to the hunt you are researching. Look at your 2025 comparison hunt tag numbers and compare it to what will be offered in 2026. Changes to tag numbers are typically the biggest factor behind a change to the draw odds.
You also need to consider how the 2025 units are split up and which portions of the units were combined to make the new unit. Hunting units often have “good” areas as well as “bad” areas and you need to determine whether the 2026 unit you are researching benefited from the combination or not . For example, the Heppner unit has changed. The north half of the Heppner unit is primarily private ground and the south half public. If you plan to hunt public ground and the unit you are researching contains the south half of Heppner, it will be perceived as a more desirable tag than if your unit got the north half.
This is a spot where you could possibly find a bargain. If the majority of a 2026 unit boundary contains less desirable ground but it has a small area of premium ground, this could go undetected.
The last random variable is human behavior. It’s really hard to predict what people will do with the deer application. I suppose it is possible that many will x99 and wait for 2027, essentially making hunts easier to draw. Or, some 2 point deer unit suddenly has a massive amount of fall in (where applicants apply that have not applied for the hunt before) and the hunt goes to 8 points. My only advice here is to follow your intuition.
There is a lot to be learned by looking over the old and new unit boundaries. There is one hunt in particular that I just have to point out, DO101 DeGarmo. This hunt has 165 tags and the boundaries are the combination of the old hunt id 174A and 174B, also known as North Warner and South Warner. What makes this interesting is that DeGarmo is one hunt which contains both 174A which took 18 points to draw and 174B took 3 points. What will this hunt go for in 2026? I for one have no idea.
Once we get past 2026, we are still not out of the woods. While I can produce a prediction from one data point (2026) for 2027, it will simply be the actual odds of drawing from 2026. You can’t identify a trend with only one year of application data. One thing is for certain, when the actual draw results are posted for 2026, everyone that studies this stuff will be aware of what every deer hunt took. If there is a bargain (there will be bargains) they will be exposed with the 2027 predictions. Bottom line, you have one shot to find that bargain hunt this year as it will be visible to everyone next year.